Update 6:20 AM ET: Gui Santos (Warriors) is doubtful (knee) and Ziaire Williams (Lakers) is questionable (foot).
The Warriors won at Denver as 30¢ underdogs and at Minnesota as 40¢ underdogs this week, and Polymarket has moved 3¢ their way since the open: Lakers 56¢, Warriors 44¢. Golden State is still without Jimmy Butler, Kristaps Porzingis and Moses Moody. This Lakers vs Warriors prediction covers Friday, October 30, at 10:00 PM ET in San Francisco.
Lakers and Warriors this season
Warriors: Stephen Curry projected 23.8 points, 44% of Golden State's listed points, with Butler, Porzingis and Moody out (NBA USAGE, Kalshi, Oct 28 8:30 AM)
Lakers: Luka Doncic 52% of listed points, Reaves 35% (NBA USAGE, Kalshi, Oct 28 8:30 AM)
Price: Lakers 56¢, Warriors 44¢ (Polymarket, as of Thu 4:01 PM ET)
Kalshi: Lakers 55¢, Warriors 45¢
Game total: 223.5 points (higher 50¢, lower 50¢)
2027 title price: Lakers 4¢, Warriors 2¢ (Polymarket US)
Live price and every move: NBA WIRE
Lakers vs Warriors prediction: prices on Polymarket and Kalshi
The Lakers are favored at 56¢, with the Warriors at 44¢. Kalshi has the Lakers 1¢ cheaper at 55¢. NBA MARKET keeps Polymarket and Kalshi side by side for this game. That is down 3¢ from the Lakers’ opening price of 59¢. The team favored at tip is 47-21 in our logged games, so upsets have come about 31% of the time.
Last time out
Recent games for each side, and what Polymarket priced them at before tip.
The Lakers are 2-1 this week: a 132-123 win at the Jazz on Sunday as 69¢ favorites, a 136-129 home loss to the Trail Blazers on Tuesday as 53¢ favorites and a 103-87 win at the Clippers on Wednesday as 50¢ favorites. Two of the three finished above the market total. On the market they rate 57, 11th of 30, and they are 4-1 against 3.3 expected wins. Their next two opponents rate 50 on average, about an average run.
The Warriors are 2-0 this week: a 134-114 win at the Nuggets on Monday as 30¢ underdogs and a 119-114 win at the Timberwolves on Wednesday as 40¢ underdogs. Both finished above the market total. On the market they rate 40, 20th of 30, and they are 2-3 against 2.0 expected wins. Their next two opponents rate 46 on average, an easier run than most.
Injury report
As of Fri Oct 30, 6:04 AM ET. Expect updates before tip.
Kristaps Porzingis (Warriors): Out
Jimmy Butler (Warriors): Out, knee
Moses Moody (Warriors): Out, knee
Cameron Carr (Lakers): Out, oblique
Adou Thiero (Lakers): Out, knee
Gui Santos (Warriors): Doubtful, knee
Ziaire Williams (Lakers): Questionable, foot
Lakers and Warriors key players
2025-26 numbers, current rosters. Usage is the share of possessions a player finished with a shot, free throws or a turnover while on the floor. Who picks up the shots when a starter sits is on NBA USAGE.
Lakers
Luka Doncic: 35.8 min, 38.1% usage, 33.5 pts, 7.7 reb, 8.3 ast
Austin Reaves: 34.5 min, 26.7% usage, 23.3 pts, 4.7 reb, 5.5 ast
Collin Sexton: 26.0 min, 26.2% usage, 17.5 pts, 2.9 reb, 2.5 ast (new, was CHI)
Quentin Grimes: 29.4 min, 19.0% usage, 13.4 pts, 3.6 reb, 3.3 ast (new, was PHI)
Jake LaRavia: 25.1 min, 14.4% usage, 8.2 pts, 4.0 reb, 1.8 ast
Warriors
Stephen Curry: 30.9 min, 32.5% usage, 26.6 pts, 3.6 reb, 4.7 ast
Brandin Podziemski: 28.4 min, 20.1% usage, 13.8 pts, 5.1 reb, 3.7 ast
Draymond Green: 27.5 min, 16.1% usage, 8.4 pts, 5.5 reb, 5.5 ast
De'Anthony Melton: 23.0 min, 25.4% usage, 12.3 pts, 3.2 reb, 2.6 ast
Brandon Williams: 22.2 min, 25.1% usage, 13.0 pts, 2.9 reb, 3.9 ast (new, was DAL)
Out: Jimmy Butler, Kristaps Porzingis, Moses Moody.
Top rookies: Yaxel Lendeborg, pick 11 (Warriors).
Questions about Lakers vs Warriors
Is Luka Doncic playing tonight?
Luka Doncic was not on the injury report as of Thu 4:01 PM ET. If that changes, the Lakers report will say so before tip, and Doncic’s 38.1% usage would have to go somewhere.
Is Stephen Curry playing tonight?
Stephen Curry was not on the injury report as of Thu 4:01 PM ET. The game-day report, due 5 p.m. local the night before and updated through the day, is the final word.
Who is favored in Lakers vs Warriors?
The Lakers are the shorter side, so a win on them pays less per contract than the Warriors. Both prices sit at the top of this page and update live on NBA WIRE.
When and where is Lakers vs Warriors?
Friday, October 30, at 10:00 PM ET, in San Francisco.
More previews for the rest of the slate are on NBA previews, and today’s board has every sport.
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